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Friday, April 4, 2008

The Iraq Stategy

What we learned today from the New York Sun:
A key adviser to Senator Obama’s campaign is recommending in a confidential paper that America keep between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in Iraq as of late 2010, a plan at odds with the public pledge of the Illinois senator to withdraw combat forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.

According to the Sun, Colin Kahl, the author of the confidential paper, is the day-to-day coordinator of the Obama campaign's working group on Iraq.

Keeping between 60,000 and 80,000 American troops means that we will be keeping half of our current troop levels in Iraq under Kahl's plan.

To be fair, Mr. Kahl stated that the paper did not express the campaign's position. But, what is the Obama campaign's actual position on Iraq. If his main adviser on Iraq advocates keeping up to 80,000 American troops in Iraq until the end 2010, then what will Obama do if he is elected? Throw out his adviser, change stated policies, or more likely, keep his current policy which does seem to allow for what Kahl advocates. The Sun article also reminds us that during the Iowa campaign. Obama stated that he was not opposed to having American troops remain in Iraq to train Iraqi military forces, and that he would remove combat troops but would keep a residual force of American troops in Iraq.

His campaign web site under "Bringing our Troops Home" indicates that he does intend on keeping what might be called residual troops in Iraq.
Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.

But, it doesn't say how many or for how long. Does Kahl's confidential paper reveal some unstated specifics of the Obama strategy for Iraq? If it does, is it a good plan? If residual American troops remain in Iraq, what will happen if the insurgency attempts to draw them into the Iraqi civil war? How will we keep them from remaining targets for insurgent attacks?

1 comment:

pdrez said...

This revelation highlights how both Obama and Clinton are guilty of flawed campaign rhetoric concerning Iraq policy. This is now two senior advisers who have either stated or insinuated that Obama is not truly going to be able to fulfill his campaign promise of withdrawing all US combat troops within 16 months. And the reason why they are saying this is because it is an unrealistic goal.

Both candidates are using the Iraq War as a political football to win voters. I do believe that both Obama and Clinton want out of Iraq, but I also believe that they are intelligent enough to realize that not all combat troops will be out by 2010 or earlier. That is just implausible. Kahl's paper reveals at the very least that Obama's Iraq policy is unclear and not fully mapped out, and at the very worst hints that perhaps Obama's stump speeches and website information are intentionally misleading Americans about his real thoughts on Iraq.

Also, it is not a matter of "if" the insurgency would try to draw these remaining troops into their civil war. They will. It is not a matter of "if" al Qaeda will attempt to build a base in Iraq if we prematurely withdraw. They will. What do Obama and Clinton think, that al Qaeda will just leave the country once we leave? Please. Both of these scenarios would play out if the US withdraws. Whether or not you believe this will put our national security at higher risk is a separate issue, but no doubt both would occur. There is only one candidate in this race that has revealed in principle his overarching policy on Iraq, and whether or not you agree with Sen. McCain, he has definitely set told the American people how he will handle Iraq. There is not ambiguity or confusion on what long-term policies he will pursue if he becomes president. I am not sure I can say the same about his opponents.